Rhein-Main Universitäten (RMU)

When chancellor candidate Armin Laschet laughed during a site visit after the 2021 flood disaster in the Ahr Valley, it measurably damaged his public image. However, there is no evidence that the scene known as the "Laschet laugh" affected voting behavior. This is the finding of a study by Professor Constantin Wurthmann of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) and Dr. Jan Berz of Goethe University Frankfurt, published in Electoral Studies.

The study was prompted by the widely discussed scene from the 2021 German federal election campaign. While German Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke about the consequences of the disaster in the flood-affected region, Armin Laschet, then minister-president of North Rhine-Westphalia and the CDU's candidate for chancellor, was seen laughing in the background. The images spread quickly and sparked intense criticism. "The idea that this moment may even have cost Laschet the election persists to this day," said Professor Constantin Wurthmann, who has been Professor of Political Behavior and Representation at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz since April 2026. "That's why we wanted to find out what actually happens when political leaders show the wrong emotion at the wrong time."

An unexpected event as a natural experiment

According to Wurthmann, it is well established that voters respond positively to appropriate emotional displays by politicians. "But we know much less about the consequences of inappropriate displays," he explained. Such breaches of norms can certainly attract considerable media attention. "The key question, though, is whether damage to a politician's public image ultimately changes people's voting behavior." The timing of the event made the Laschet laugh particularly suitable for investigating this question. At the time, a comprehensive panel survey on the 2021 German federal election was already underway as part of the German Longitudinal Election Study, a long-term study conducted by the German Society for Electoral Research and GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences. Some participants were surveyed just before the incident, while others provided their responses afterward.

"In political science, this research design is called an Unexpected Event during Survey Design," stated Dr. Jan Berz of Goethe University Frankfurt. "It allows us to study how an unexpected event influences attitudes and behavior." Normally, it is difficult to determine which effects during an election campaign are actually due to a single event and which are influenced by other factors. "But in this case, the timing of the survey gave us the opportunity to distinguish the effect of the incident from other campaign influences and to study a real-world political event," added Wurthmann.

Comparing data collected before and after the Laschet laugh revealed a measurable deterioration in perceptions of Laschet. Respondents rated the chancellor candidate's character more negatively afterward. "The effect was moderate but statistically significant," said Wurthmann. However, the political scientists found no significant effect on voter turnout or voting decisions. "Damage to a person's public image can be real but limited and does not necessarily translate into changes in voting behavior."

Viral moments do not necessarily decide elections

The study challenges the idea that individual public missteps determine the outcome of an election campaign. "This example clearly shows that evaluating a person and making a voting decision are two different things," concluded Wurthmann. "A moment like this can harm someone's image without necessarily being decisive for the election." According to the researchers, inappropriate emotional displays may have different effects from those of classic political scandals, such as incidents involving abuse of power or financial misconduct. Previous studies have documented effects in such cases that – unlike those observed for the Laschet laugh – extend beyond perceptions of the individual.

Publication:
J. Berz, L. C. Wurthmann: What harm do inappropriate emotional displays by political leaders cause? Evidence from an unexpected event during survey design, Electoral Studies, 1 September 2026
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103143

Related links:
https://www.gesis.org/gles – German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES)

Contact:
Prof. Dr. Constantin Wurthmann
Political Behavior and Representation
Department of Political Science
Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
55099 Mainz
phone: 06131 39-30249
Email: wurthmann@politik.uni-mainz.de
https://cwurthmann.com/